THAT SPEECH

I haven’t written on Europe for some time, even though regular readers of my column and visitors to my blog know my opinions well! 

But now the question of the ‘in out’ referendum has finally been dragged kicking and screaming out in the open; I feel that comment is overdue.

I must say, in a very unifying part of David Cameron’s speech, the PM said, “We have the character of an island nation – independent, forthright, passionate in defence of our sovereignty. We can no more change this British sensibility than we can drain the English Channel.” Well, for once he was right, but our nationalism goes much further than that as far as the EU is concerned; yes we are a nation who looks outward but, not purely to the nearest landmass; we look out to the whole world. 

One answer to our basic economic problem is that we need to trade with everyone, not to be stuck in a declining, protectionist trade block that sees everything outside of itself as a threat to trade rather than an opportunity.

I think this is what most of us wanted the first time! In fact that’s exactly what our parents & grandparents actually voted for in the first referendum – a free trade agreement!

But over the years we have been lied to, deceived and misled. So much so that the British public have all but lost interest in politics, which ironically has led some politicians to finally realise that the British public have had enough of the EU and its interference in our everyday lives. Whether its immigration, the control of our own borders and the ability to deport unwanted people, law, social policy, or any of the thousands of other diktats they’ve imposed, means the public have reached the tipping point where they are increasingly at odds with the entire EU project.

But let’s not get too excited, if this referendum ever comes to fruition it will not be until 2017 at the earliest and that depends on whether the Tories win the next election. Therefore, with no serious negotiation on the repatriation of powers going on before the next election, the chances of Cameron fulfilling his promise are at best, remote.

My problem is that although I saw his lips move, I didn’t believe a word of it! People know very well that Cameron is pro EU! A fact confirmed by the Prime Minister himself. You may have noticed that at the end of his speech, he made a rather strong case for Britain staying in the EU. But in questions afterwards he refused to be drawn on whether if the 'renegotiations' failed he would vote to stay in.

That together with his bogus green agenda; the hike in taxes to pay for it, his big state, more regulation, no growth soft form of Blair’s socialism and with the economy continuing bouncing along in and out of recession  – why on earth would anyone vote for more of that? 

So basically the choice is 'vote Tory at the next election and I will give you an in/out referendum two years after that'.

On the other side of the coin we have Red Ed, who stood up at PMQ’s and said, quite categorically  that if Labour was elected, he would not give us a referendum.  However, hours later, his spin-doctors were dodging that remark, saying he never meant never, as situations in the future may change!

However, coming up on the outside rails is UKIP ridden in by Nigel Farage, who having already made significant inroads into grass root Tory support, are picking up plenty from Labour too because of Red Ed’s ‘No’ referendum stance. 

As a result, with Labour policy planners fearing that they may lose many protest votes to this political ‘dark hours’ it seems most unlikely that Red Ed will be able to maintain his opposition to the idea without suffering political loss.

So this entire EU referendum speech was not as the PM said, to be in the best interest of the British people; it was made purely to shore up his personal position as party leader and prevent UKIP from siphoning off even more core votes, which could guarantee the return of his party to the opposition benches.

So, at the moment Labour are happy to sit in a position where they can fudge the issue all they want, but at some point over the next two years they are actually going to have to produce some policies, at which time the public will get a real sense of what’s in store should the Red Ed’s be installed. In the meantime Labour proceed as normal with their heads firmly inserted where the sun don’t shine! And hide behind their holding position which, in diplomatic terms is, “it’s important to be in the room.”

Mind you we should not be surprised at that as it was Labour who gave away most of our bargaining powers in the first place with Blair signing away a substantial portion away in return for CAP reforms. Which, as it happens, never materialised and Labour hate being reminded of it!

However, all this could be total speculation because I for one would not be at all surprised if the financial crisis affecting the EU destroys it way before we get our promised vote.

However, if we do, I envisage that David Cameron after acquiring a small set of concessions, will campaign vigorously to get a 'yes' vote to stay in. Personally, I say 'no' and I'm voting UKIP. I used to be a Tory voter, but, I just don't trust him.

Oh, if only we had a real Conservative leader at the helm who would hold a referendum before the next election,  offer cheap energy, small taxes, a smaller state, free trade with Europe, fewer regulations and real growth.